![]() Year-over-year employment growth was 4.7 percent in April. Retail sales reached prepandemic levels (February 2020) in October 2021.įormal sector employment-jobs with government benefits and pensions-grew an annualized 5.7 percent (97,000 jobs) in April after increasing 5.1 percent in March ( Chart 5). On a month-over-month and unsmoothed basis, retail sales grew 0.8 percent in February-the same rate as in January. The index of real Mexico retail sales increased 0.6 percent month over month based on a three-month moving average through February ( Chart 4). Mexico’s total real monthly exports in March were 12.8 percent above prepandemic levels (February 2020) and 9.7 percent higher than 12 months prior. The pickup in oil prices has contributed to the recent growth in oil exports given that Mexico’s oil production has been flat since mid-2021. On a month-over-month and unsmoothed basis, total exports declined 3.9 percent in March as oil exports grew 13.7 percent but manufacturing exports fell 5.1 percent. The three-month moving average of total exports increased 1.2 percent in March as oil exports grew 9.2 percent and the much-larger manufacturing exports category grew 0.7 percent ( Chart 3). consumer demand decelerates as a result of rising prices and higher interest rates. Mexico’s manufacturing sector could experience some slowdown in the second quarter, particularly if U.S. increased considerably with the rise of intra-industry trade between the two countries since the early 1990s. The correlation between IP in Mexico and the U.S. IP increased 1.1 percent in April after rising 0.9 percent in March. On a month-over-month and unsmoothed basis, IP was up 0.4 percent in March. The three-month moving average of Mexico’s industrial production (IP) index-which includes manufacturing, construction, oil and gas extraction, and utilities-improved in March from February ( Chart 2). Both the goods-producing sector (manufacturing, construction, utilities and mining) and service-providing sector (wholesale and retail trade, transportation, business services) grew 4.4 percent, while agriculture output decreased 7.6 percent. Output Grows in First Quarter 2022Īccording to preliminary estimates, Mexico’s first-quarter GDP grew an annualized 3.6 percent ( Chart 1). In April, the peso gained value against the dollar, but inflation remained elevated. The latest data available show that industrial production, exports, retail sales and employment grew, while remittances declined. SOURCES: Encuesta sobre las Expectativas de los Especialistas en Economía del Sector Privado: Abril de 2022 (communiqué on economic expectations, Banco de México, April 2022). NOTE: CPI refers to consumer price index. Table 1: Consensus Forecasts for 2022 Mexico Growth and Inflation
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